METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE SEISMIC HAZARD OF STABLE CONTINENTAL REGIONS USING A COMPLEX OF PALEOSEISMOLOGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA

O.O. Erteleva1, A.Ya. Sidorin1, E.Yu. Sokolova1, A.A. Lukk1, A.A. Nikonov1, F.F. Aptikaev1, S.V. Shvarev1,2

1 – Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

2 – Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Corresponding author: О.О. Erteleva, e-mail: ertel@ifz.ru

Abstract. Assessing the seismic hazard of stable continental regions, where modern seismic activity is weak, is a difficult problem, the solution of which is necessary to ensure the safety of people and buildings in these territories. Traditional techniques, including seismotectonic research, seismic monitoring, the identification of source zones and the subsequent hazard assessment are ineffective in such areas due to the lack of representative statistics of earthquakes and low informativity of data. In seismic zoning of such territories (especially for solving problems of ensuring seismic safety of especially important objects, for example, nuclear power plants), it is unacceptable to be limited to data on modern seismicity – rare seismic events must be taken into account, i.e. earthquakes with a large period of recurrence. The joint study of active faults, earthquakes of the historical period and paleoearthquakes allows us to significantly expand the time interval of the catalog of strong earthquakes and to identify new, previously unselected source zones. To assess the seismic hazard of the territories of stable continental regions, the authors of this article propose to use paleoseismological data together with the results of seismological and geophysical studies, which allows combining data on paleoearthquakes and modern seismicity. In order to obtain additional information about the stress-strain state of the study area and determine the focal mechanisms of earthquake in the revealed source zones, an analysis of seismic observations is carried out. The results of field geophysical studies provide an opportunity to judge the existence of ancient “unhealed” faults in the territory of the source zones, which can serve as an indirect confirmation of the correctness of their interpretation. In the article, this approach is implemented on the example of seismic hazard assessment of Karelia and the Kola Peninsula. For some objects and settlements of the considered region, the parameters of seismic effect from events with a long recurrence period are estimated.

Keywords: seismicity, seismic hazard, paleoearthquakes, stable continental regions, Karelia, Kola Peninsula, earthquake effect, intensity, magnitude, focal mechanism,  magnetotelluric and magnetic variation sounding, geoelectric structure

About the author:

ERTELEVA Olga Olegovna - Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Chief Researcher, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 123242, Moscow, D-242, ul. Bolshaya Gruzinskaya, 10. Tel .: (499) 254-24-85. E-mail: ertel@ifz.ru

SIDORIN Alexander Yakovlevich – Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Chief Researcher, Head of Laboratory. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 123242, Moscow, ul. Bolshaya Gruzinskaya, 10, building 1. E-mail: al_sidorin@hotmail.com   

SOKOLOVA Elena Yurievna - Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Chief Researcher, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 123242, Moscow, D-242, ul. Bolshaya Gruzinskaya, 10. E-mail: sokol_l@mail.ru

LUKK Albert Arturovich – Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Chief researcher, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Moscow, Russia. Tel.: +7 (499) 254-90-35. E-mail: lukk@ifz.ru

NIKONOV Andrei Alekseevich – Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 123242, Moscow, ul. Bolshaya Gruzinskaya, 10, building 1. E-mail: nikonov@ifz.ru

APTIKAEV Felix Fuadovich – Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Professor, Chief Researcher. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 123242, Moscow, D-242, ul. Bolshaya Gruzinskaya, 10. Tel .: (499) 254-24-85. E-mail: felix@ifz.ru

SHVAREV Sergey Valentinovich – Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Chief  Reseacher, Head of Laboratory, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences. 119017, Moscow, Staromonetnyi per., 29; Leading Researcher, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 123242, Moscow, ul. Bolshaya Gruzinskaya 10, build. 1. Tel: +7 (499) 238-03-60. E-mail: shvarev@igras.ru, shvarev@ifz.ru

Cite this article as: Erteleva O.O., Sidorin A.Ya., Sokolova E.Yu, Lukk A.F., Nikonov A.A., Aptikaev F.F., Shvarev S.V. Methods for assessing the seismic hazard of stable continental areas using a complex of paleoseismological and geophysical data, Voprosy Inzhenernoi Seismologii (Problems of Engineering Seismology), 2018, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 69–94. [in Russian]. DOI: 10.21455/vis2018.4-5

English translation of the article will be published in Seismic Instruments, ISSN: 0747-9239 (Print) 1934-7871 (Online), https://link.springer.com/journal/11990), 2019, Volume 55, Issue 4.