KORYAK EARTHQUAKE – AN EXAMPLE OF A SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED SEISMIC EVENT

E.A. Rogozhin^1,2, A.N. Ovsyuchenko¹, A.I. Lutikov^1,2, A.I. Ruzaykin¹, G.Yu. Dontsova^1,2, A.I. Sysolin¹

^1.Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

^2. Federal Research Center – Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences, Obninsk, Russia

Corresponding author: A.I. Lutikov, e-mail: ail@ifz.ru

Abstract. In the border zone of Kamchatka Krai and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, on January 9, 2020, occurred an earthquake with M_S = 6.6 (M_W = 6.4) and intensity at the epicenter of 9–9.5 points. The seismotectonic position of the source and the nature of the seismogenic movement in it have been preliminary determined. The seismic history of the region is considered and the features of the aftershock process are characterized. The collection of seismotectonic and seismological data on this event was carried out. The conclusion is made about the spread of seismic activity in the northeastern direction along the Khatyr-Vyvenskaya zone of active faults in the period 1991–2020. The earthquake was well predicted in the medium term.

Keywords: earthquake, active faults, earthquake source, aftershocks, seismic activation, seismic moment tensor

About the authors

ROGOZHIN Evgeny Aleksandrovich – Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 123242, Moscow, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya st., 10-1; Federal Research Center – Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 249035, Kaluga region, Obninsk, Lenina av. 189. E-mail: eurog@ifz.ru

Ovsyuchenko Alexander Nikolaevich – Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 123242, Moscow, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya st., 10-1. E-mail: ovs@ifz.ru

LUTIKOV Alexander Ivanovich – Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 123242, Moscow, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya st., 10-1; Federal Research Center – Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 249035, Kaluga region, Obninsk, Lenina av. 189. E-mail: ail@ifz.ru

RUZAYKIN Alexander Ivanovich – Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 123242, Moscow, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya st., 10-1. E-mail: a.ruzaykin@yandex.ru

DONTSOVA Galina Yurievna – Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 123242, Moscow, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya st., 10-1; Federal Research Center – Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 249035, Kaluga region, Obninsk, Lenina av. 189. E-mail: donzova@ifz.ru

SYSOLIN Alexander Ivanovich – Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 123242, Moscow, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya st., 10-1. E-mail: alexandr.sysolin@gmail.com

Cite this article as: Rogozhin E.A., Ovsyuchenko A.N., Lutikov A.I., Ruzaykin A.I., Dontsova G.Yu., Sysolin A.I. Koryak earthquake – An example of a successfully predicted seismic event, Voprosy Inzhenernoi Seismologii (Problems of Engineering Seismology). 2020. V. 47, No. 3. P. 92–103. [in Russian]. https://doi.org/10.21455/VIS2020.3-5

English translation of the article will be published in Seismic Instruments, ISSN: 0747-9239 (Print) 1934-7871 (Online), https://link.springer.com/journal/11990